The only way forward

The ecological crisis appears to be a real thing 

Expecting elite institutions to provide the necessary public benefits is foolish 

Tom Harris has a great slide deck with the state of play as of mid 2026

The talk will walk through the physics of climate change using the very latest satellite data to show how the planet is out of energy balance, is accumulating energy at an accelerating rate and how this energy is taken up as heat in different Earth systems. The up-coming ‘Goliath’ El Niño effects will be looked at with reference to past events and the phenomena of temperature ratcheting uncovered, leading to predictions for the second half of this decade. Tipping points are the next topic focussing on the ocean currents and Amazon rainforest as well as the economic consequences of the continued warming. The talk will then look at the triad of measures we still have available to combat the predicament - decarbonising the economy, removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and deploying solar geoengineering. Finally we’ll try and answer the question of whether this is a new normal.

Prediction markets

A history 

How Polymarket arose and what it means