Monday, February 01, 2021

Bernie


I like Noah generally.  This seems to be a good summary of the Bernie movement, what worked and why it ultimately failed.

Status quo bias is strong, which is just a way of saying that people tend to be cautious. If you come seeking political revolution, you should expect to get political evolution instead. 
Which is exactly what Bernie got.

The terms “theory of change” and “theory of power” were central to the Bernie movement’s worldview; at its core, it was an ideology about how to gain and seize power within the Democratic party. 

Bernie’s Theory of Change might have been right (see previous section). But his Theory of Power was wrong. This was proven in dramatic fashion on March 3rd, 2020, when Biden crushed Bernie in the Super Tuesday primaries and went on to cruise to a victory infinitely more decisive than Hillary Clinton’s. Bernie believed that only his brand of politics could drive a turnout surge; instead, the turnout surge was all for Biden. Bernie believed that he would be able to unite the White working class and the Black working class; instead, the two united in their support for Biden. Bernie bet on a big surge in youth turnout; it just didn’t happen. America’s young people were willing to pour into the streets to fight racist cops, but they couldn’t be persuaded to pour into the voting booths for single-payer health insurance. And online activism turned out to be less potent of a weapon than some had allowed themselves to believe.