Supply chains

Or networks…

part 1: what is going on

part 2: from March 2020

On the impact of the pandemic, but a lot of meaty explanation of what goes on in logistics etc

Deeper look form Naked Capitalism

The original sin is optimizing businesses for efficiency at the expense of having slack to contend with unexpected developments….anything from the factory of a key supplier blowing up to the macro-level disruption of Covid. More buffers means more resilience. Having them doesn’t mean all bad outcomes would have prevented. But we would have had fewer deficits and many would have resolved faster. In other words, companies around the world set out to increase collective tail risk in pursuit of profit.

Matt Stoller  discusses weird shortages popping up all over.

Nice explainer 

from the Atlantic

Supply chain people have been key workers that we have all relied on in the pandemic. Starting with the front line, drivers, warehouse workers, planners, engineers, but also the managers and leaders. They have worked in crisis mode now for 18mths + and they are mentally tired… now under major strain, stress levels are too high, tempers and frayed and people are finding it harder to work together… it is time to start to accept that things are not just going to go back to normal on their own, that we can't wish them away. It is time to start being realistic about what our supply chains have the capacity to do, rather than what we want them to be able to do.

How bad might it get?

these problems are likely to both become more severe and persist longer than they should due to the poor responses of our elites. Some of these disruptions are due to things outside US control,… the Administration is making the supply chain/inflation crisis worse through its insistence on strong-form, as in vaccine-only, mandates. There are plenty of choke points in the economy, such nursing staff and public transit workers, that a few job losses has a disproportionate impact. And as we have pointed out here, now that Delta has become the dominant variant, the vaccines do little to limit contagion, as opposed to tamp down severe cases and deaths. It would be far better to have regular testing in all workplaces with close working conditions and/or poor ventilation. But the pushing of the magic vaccines as the only solution continues.

Why it is going to get worse

information flows, ignorance and efficiency of the global supply chain

Carbs and insulin

Weight gain/loss is not just thermodynamics, ie calories in vs calories out.

Quality matters

the carbohydrate-insulin model lays much of the blame for the current obesity epidemic on modern dietary patterns characterized by excessive consumption of foods with a high glycemic load: in particular, processed, rapidly digestible carbohydrates. These foods cause hormonal responses that fundamentally change our metabolism, driving fat storage, weight gain, and obesity.

Who knew?

COVID-19: it’s about the aerosols

inhalation dose  is the single most important thing in determining whether you get infected and how bad

On aerosol transmission of Covid 

https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1461356173081276420

A new peer-reviewed paper in @ScienceMagazine, reviewing the scientific literature on this topic. We conclude it is important not just for COVID-19, but also for other respiratory diseases such as the flu

we have known for a long time that transmission through surfaces is not important. There are zero proven cases for COVID-19, and it wouldn't be so hard to prove if it was important.

Politics and money  and their effect on acceptance of airborne transmission of COVID 

Ivermectin

balanced discussion

I have been shocked by the vitriol on both pro and anti ivermectin groups 

Some is due to 

mistakes, and some by deliberate misrepresentation

Two deaths were not caused by ivermectin, a long-used generic drug that was emerging as a covid treatment. Instead, he said that the pair died because they “actually just delayed their care with covid.” 

Scott Alexander  reviews all the studies.  

• Ivermectin doesn’t reduce mortality in COVID a significant amount (let’s say d > 0.3) in the absence of comorbid parasites: 85-90% confidence

• Parasitic worms are a significant confounder in some ivermectin studies, such that they made them get a positive result even when honest and methodologically sound: 50% confidence

But as much as we love Scott, he might have some errors…. See this

response to Scott Alexander

Redoing the meta study 

I am a proponent of is epistemic honesty and balanced evaluation of evidence on all sides, and what I do know is that the structure of the arguments made against ivermectin look highly suspect. I’ve gone in depth on most if not all of them and they are a cornucopia of bad facts and bad logic. Scott’s article is the best of the genre, as it is not obviously riddled with both, if at the cost of complexity of explanation. It must be said that Scott’s article also stands out for its good faith and civility of engagement, which makes it easier to respond to.

Orlov from 2006

Comparing the US and USSR regarding their “preparedness” for collapse

US is not well prepared

His belief is that the inevitable collapse here will not be pretty and we will not recover 

From relatively equal societies to where we are today

How did inequality get so bad?

Aeon tries to explain