NCAA week 3, results

OK, I learned that my "locks" are not very good bets.

Overall 9-12 on 21 games is sub par
but even worse, 1-5 on the triple sized games leads to $1,330 net loss for the week.  Ouch.

Somehow the formatting didn't transfer over from Excel but you should be able to read the table.

Game, week 3	Spread	Result	Win/Loss
La Tech		42	200
North Texas	-3.5	21
Houston		25	100
BYU	-18.5	33
Toledo		34	-110
Cinncinnati	-11	58
Indiana	-7	42
Bowling Green		45	100
Ohio		14	-110
Marshall	-20.5	44
Miami (OH)		10
Michigan	-31	34	-330
Kent State		0	-110
Ohio State	-32	66
Syracuse	-6.5	40
Central Michigan		3	-330
Boise St	-16	38
Connecticut		21	-220
Louisville	-6.5	21
Virginia		23	100
W Kentucky		47
Middle Tennessee St	-1.5	50	100
Arkansas		49	100
Texas Tech	-2	28
Miss State	-14.5	35	100
South Alabama		10
Illinois		19
Washington	-13.5	44	100
Minnesota		7	-110
TCU	-14	30
Wake Forest		24	300
Utah State	-14.5	36
Tulsa		21	-330
Florida Atlantic	0	50
Purdue		14
Notre Dame	-28.5	30	-330
Navy	-10.5	35
Texas State		21	-330
USC	-17	31	-110
BC		37
Nevada		28
Arizona	-15.5	35	-110
	Win	Loss	$Net
Total vs Spread	9	12	-1330
"locks"	1	5	-1350
Good bets	1	1	-20
favorable bets	7	6	40

'via Blog this'

NCAA Football, 2014 week 3. Dave's machine learning algo bets again

Sorry about the ugly image

Yellow highlights are bets where model thinks consensus (right hand column) is "wrong"
Bold are better bets
Bold italic are best.

I am betting $300 on best, $200 on better, and $100 on other good bets.

I had a draft explaining this in more detail that I've been trying to post since Wednesday...
maybe I'll follow up.   We are approaching the sweet spot of college FB inefficiency.  Enough data for me to get an edge but still noisy enough that bettors make some big errors.  Or, perhaps I'm the one making errors.  We'll learn something, anyway.  Frankly, I don't believe some of these.  My model thinks Wake Forest +14.5 vs Utah State is huge but I'm not so sure...  and the way Michigan played last week, well, giving 31 to anyone seems risky.  Not that Miami (OH) is particularly strong.
But, I'll trust the system and put the bets down.  My track record of overriding the model on intuition is really really bad.

The "consensus" is average but Harrah's, Mirage, Wynn & others do not all have the same line - I got a couple of these down with a half point or point better.   This is Tuesday's consensus, by the way, not current.

Have not done much so far.  Left the first week alone and put on 7 last week.  Won big on Pitt but was 2-4 on the others for about break even.

Have a day job and many other hobbies, so might not be doing this everyweek.
Thanks to vegasinsider.com for the chart I swiped with the games in a grid.

I might like to write a little script to upload the data into R and process it there then dump to Excel for presentation formatting...  but don't hold your breath.

Final college bowls, FPI vs spread, using Kelly for bet sizing

20-12-3 vs the spread (no bet in Liberty & Cotton, and LSU won  by exactly 7)

On $10,000 total bet, made $1,850.

This table reflects spreads as of Dec 12; in reality I was able to get some better bets down but did not affect the dollars.

Good result but not any kind of definitive statistical victory; however, it's worthy of further study.

I might look at pyramiding results - using each day as a bet.  Might not turn out so well since the last three "locks" (ASU, Stanford & FSU) lost vs. the spread.

Bowl	TEAMS	Dec 12 spread	Bet	RESULTS	Result$
NEW ORLEANS BOWL	LA-Lafayette, Sun Belt		250	24	$        250
	Tulane, C-USA	-1		21
GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL	Washington St, Pac-12	-3.5	250	45	$  (275.0)
	Colorado State, MW			48
FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL	Buffalo, MAC	-2	200	24	$  (220.0)
	San Diego State, MW			49
ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL	USC, Pac-12	-6	250	45	$        250
	Fresno State, MW			20
BEEF 'O' BRADY'S BOWL	East Carolina, C-USA	-13.5	100	37	$        100
	Ohio, MAC			20
SHERATON HAWAII BOWL	Boise State, MW			23	$        200
	Oregon State, Pac-12	-3	200	38
LITTLE CAESARS BOWL	Bowling Green, MAC	-5.5		27	$        200
	Pittsburgh, ACC		200	30
POINSETTIA BOWL	Utah State, MW		1050	21	$    1,050
	N Illinois, MAC	-1.5		14
FIGHT HUNGER BOWL	Washington, Pac-12	-3	300	31	$        300
	BYU, FBS Indep.			16
MILITARY BOWL	Marshall, C-USA		100	31	$        100
	Maryland, ACC	-3		20
TEXAS BOWL	Minnesota, Big Ten	-4		17	$    100.0
	Syracuse, ACC		100	21
Belk Bowl	North Carolina, ACC	-3	250	39	$        250
	Cincinnati, American			17
BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL	Kansas State, Big 12	-3.5		31	$  (165.0)
	Michigan, Big Ten		150	14
NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL	Notre Dame, FBS Indep.	-15.5		29	$        100
	Rutgers, American		100	16
RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL	Miami (FL), ACC			9	$        100
	Louisville, American	-3	100	36
Valero Alamo Bowl	Oregon, Pac-12	-14	700	30	700
	Texas, Big 12			7
ARMED FORCES BOWL	Navy, FBS Indep.	-6	200	24	200
	Middle Tennessee, C-USA			6
HOLIDAY BOWL	Arizona State, Pac-12	-14	800	23	-880
	Texas Tech, Big 12			37
MUSIC CITY BOWL	Georgia Tech, ACC		250	17	-275
	Ole Miss, SEC	-3		25
AdvoCare V100 Bowl	Arizona, Pac-12	-7.5	250	42	250
	Boston College, ACC			19
Chick-fil-A BOWL	Texas A&M, SEC	-12		52	800
	Duke, ACC		800	48
AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL	Mississippi St, SEC	-7		44
	Rice, C-USA			7
HYUNDAI SUN BOWL	UCLA, Pac-12	-7	200	42	200
	Virginia Tech, ACC			17
CAPITAL ONE BOWL	Wisconsin, Big Ten		100	24	-110
	South Carolina, SEC	-1		34
HEART OF DALLAS BOWL	North Texas, C-USA	-6.5	150	36	150
	UNLV, MW			14
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL	Baylor, Big 12	-16	200	42	-220
	UCF, American			52
TAXSLAYER.com GATOR BOWL	Georgia, SEC	-9	150	19	-165
	Nebraska, Big Ten			24
OUTBACK BOWL	LSU, SEC	-7	100	21	0
	Iowa, Big Ten			14
ROSE BOWL	Stanford, Pac-12	-4.5	1000	20	-1100
	Michigan State, Big Ten			24
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL	Alabama, SEC	-15		31	200
	Oklahoma, Big 12		200	45
AT&T COTTON BOWL	Oklahoma State, Big 12			31	0
	Missouri, SEC	-1		41
DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL	Ohio State, Big Ten	-3	100	35	-110
	Clemson, ACC			40
BBVA COMPASS BOWL	Houston, American		300	24	-330
	Vanderbilt, SEC	-3		41
GODADDY BOWL	Ball State, MAC	-9		20	250
	Arkansas State, Sun Belt		250	23
VIZIO BCS	Florida State, ACC	-8.5	650	34	-715
	Auburn, SEC			31