Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Process knowledge

From Programmable Mutter

He like Dan Wang’s book Breakneck

Breakneck is about America nearly as much as it is about China. The book is fascinated with how America and China resemble each other, their sharp differences, and how both help fuel their mutual incomprehension. I imagine that most responses* will focus on two big questions: how America’s misunderstanding of China fuels geopolitical confrontation, and how America’s misunderstanding of itself leads it to miss out on material abundance. 

However, the best reading of the book, in my biased opinion, starts not with these questions, but the alternative perspective that lies behind Dan’s answers. The biggest lesson I took from Breakneck was not about China, or the U.S., but the importance of “process knowledge.” 

Friday, October 03, 2025

Xu Guo on Dalio and MMT

Chinese discussion 
Dalio is a star but Guo argues (and I agree) that he’s wrong on macroeconomics

 Economic debate continues to simmer in China between deficit hawks and doves, as Beijing lifts its deficit ratio to record highs and embarks upon its biggest fiscal stimulus campaign since the Global Financial Crisis.
Partisans on either side of China's fiscal policy debate have drawn inspiration from heterodox macroeconomic opinion derived from overseas sources.
Chinese deficit hawks find support for their arguments against fiscal spending in the popular works of storied hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, who contends that excess debt accumulation inevitably results in financial crises.
Doves, on the other hand, are making recourse to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to support their arguments in favour of deficit spending as a safe means of sustaining the Chinese economy.
This divide is best embodied by a vicious attack against Ray Dalio's works that was recently launched by Xu Gao (徐高), chief economist at Bank of China International.
Xu cites MMT in arguing that China needs to dial up its debt levels, instead of pursue a "beautiful deleveraging" as prescribed by Dalio.

JK Galbraith lessons