State of global climate

Oxford report

Readable

Not a lot of good news 

The effects of global warming are progressively more severe, and possibilities such as a worldwide societal breakdown are feasible and dangerously underexplored (Kemp et al. 2022). By the end of this century, an estimated 3 to 6 billion individuals—approximately one-third to one-half of the global population—might find themselves confined beyond the livable region, encountering severe heat, limited food availability, and elevated mortality rates because of the effects of climate change (Lenton et al. 2023). Big problems need big solutions. Therefore, we must shift our perspective on the climate emergency from being just an isolated environmental issue to a systemic, existential threat. Although global heating is devastating, it represents only one aspect of the escalating and interconnected environmental crisis that we are facing (e.g., biodiversity loss, fresh water scarcity, pandemics). We need policies that target the underlying issues of ecological overshoot where the human demand on Earth's resources results in overexploitation of our planet and biodiversity decline (figures 5a, S5; McBain et al. 2017). As long as humanity continues to exert extreme pressure on the Earth, any attempted climate-only solutions will only redistribute this pressure.

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Conditions are going to get very distressing and potentially unmanageable for large regions of the world

Thomas Neuberger. comments 

While global temperature records are not yet in for the full month of October 2023, real-time reanalysis products increasingly allow scientists to track global temperatures on a daily basis. 

Reanalysis pulls together a huge amount of data from satellites, weather balloons, aeroplanes, weather stations, ships and buoys to provide a detailed look at how the Earth’s climate is changing in real-time.

Modern reanalysis products, such as JRA-55 and ERA5, use state-of-the-art methods to produce records that align well with traditional surface temperature datasets over recent decades.

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nearly every single day since mid-June 2023 has been warmer than any equivalent day since 1958. That is, this July 1 was the warmest July 1, this July 2 was the warmest July 2, and so on. By a lot.