Collapse. Might not be inevitable but it’s looking likely

How it might come about

Ten pathways that are fairly orthogonal, any one of which is problematic 

Our entire global industrial civilization is going to collapse. And soon, which means within the lifetimes of most people alive today.

I realize this is quite the claim, and a pretty terrifying one if you’re under 50 or so. In this article, I will list 10 problems the world is facing, each of which could cause the collapse of civilization all on its own. Which means, if even one of these problems isn’t solved, our civilization is doomed.

As society breaks down, life will get simpler and simpler. 

By the late 21st century, people will be living the way they did in the early 19th century.

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1. If you’ve never heard of ecological overshoot, it’s what happens when an organism uses up an ecosystem’s resources faster than they can regenerate. This happens all the time in nature.  How long until humans overshoot the Earth’s carrying capacity? 

   We already did. About 50 years ago.

   probably billions will die this century.
   

   
   

   Overshoot means that even at current global average (inadequate) material standards, the human population is consuming even replenishable and self-producing resources faster than ecosystems can regenerate and is producing entropic waste in excess of the ecosphere’s assimilative capacity

   
   

2. you can see how crucial fossil fuels are to our civilization. We need to transition away from them before we actually run out of them. And that’s a problem because it looks like we’re going to run out of them soon.
3. The Failure of Green Energy
4. Now that I’ve destroyed your dreams of a green techno-utopia, let’s look at some other resources that are in short supply. [robber, sand…]
5. our topsoil is eroding 10 to 40 times faster than it can regenerate. 70% of arable land has been removed from production by erosion of topsoil.
6. the global water shortage.
7. why climate change is so dangerous:  The increasing number and severity of natural disasters will eventually cause simultaneous breadbasket failures around the world, and the subsequent food shortages will lead to global famine and the breakdown of society.
8. We are living through our planet’s sixth mass extinction event. scientists believe half the species on Earth could go extinct by 2050. The loss of that many species will have an “extinction domino effect” that leads to food webs collapsing and more plant and animal species dying. This is why some scientists are warning that the world will run out of food in a matter of decades.
9. the largest refugee crisis in the world. The climate crisis is expected to produce up to 1.5 billion migrants by 2050. Even if only half of them leave their home countries, it will be a refugee crisis 100 times worse than the one that has happened across Syria and Europe over the past decade.
10. United Nations chief, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, said that “humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation.”.  [or, maybe just a lot more ordinary war over resources]

Background material in this book 

Collapsology

Four “common sense” approaches

At the heart of this turmoil lies a common enemy – the wild west economics of Neoliberalism. An inherently undemocratic system that focuses on profit geared markets. While we might vote for representatives, our say in the business is virtually nonexistent. They are controlled by money – the major corporations, financial giants, and the top 1 percent of the world’s wealthy. Their objective? To maximise profit – not to meet human or ecological needs.

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1. Democratise: Both workplaces and governments should have more ways, like Mini-Publics (Citizens Assemblies), to engage people in decision making. Across the board, this has been found to produce more progressive outcomes for people and planet. 

2. Universal Public Services: Essential services like healthcare, education, and housing must be accessible to everyone. 

3. Public Works Programs with a Job Guarantee: Invest in renewable energy, energy efficiency and ecosystem restoration with guaranteed fair wage jobs. This approach not only fulfils ecological objectives but also abolishes unemployment and economic insecurity.

4. Scale Down Less-Necessary Goods: Reduce production in destructive industries, like fossil fuels and fast fashion. Extend the lifespan of products and ban planned obsolescence.

5. Wealth Redistribution: Implement wealth taxes and maximum income ratios to curb excessive consumption by the rich. Right now millionaires alone are on track to burn 72 percent of the remaining carbon budget to keep the planet under 1.5°C of warming. This is an egregious assault on humanity and the living world, and none of us should accept it. 

I have to say that these are aspirational, and there isn’t a powerful argument that these will actually solve anything, but they might be necessary even if insufficient