Monday, June 19, 2023

How much COVID is infectious?


A single virus (virion) is insufficient to cause infection but 10,000 almost certainly is 

PLOS has a study estimating the number of virions needed.  300 to 2000


Presumably a patient’s circumstances matter; overall health, immune system etc
We probed the transmission of COVID-19 by applying an airborne transmission model to five well-documented case studies—a Washington state church choir, a Korean call center, a Korean exercise class, and two different Chinese bus trips. For all events the likely index patients were pre-symptomatic or mildly symptomatic, which is when infective patients are most likely to interact with large groups of people. Applying the model to those events yields results that suggest the following: (1) transmission was airborne; (2) superspreading events do not require an index patient with an unusually high viral load; (3) the viral loads for all of the index patients were of the same order of magnitude and consistent with experimentally measured values for patients at the onset of symptoms


Airborne transmission is one of the main routes of SARS-CoV-2 spread. It is important to determine the circumstances under which the risk of airborne transmission is increased as well as the effective strategy to reduce such risk.
our model can estimate R0 with an acceptable accuracy. In a typical outpatient setting, the required indoor CO2 concentration at which R0 does not exceed 1 is below 620 ppm with no mask, 1000 ppm with a surgical mask and 16000 ppm with an N95 mask. In a typical inpatient setting, on the other hand, the required indoor CO2 concentration is below 540 ppm with no mask, 770 ppm with a surgical mask, and 8200 ppm with an N95 mask. These findings facilitate the establishment of a strategy for preventing airborne transmission in hospitals. This study is unique in that it suggests the development of an airborne transmission model with indoor CO2 and application of the model to actual clinical practice. Organizations and individuals can efficiently recognize the risk of SARS-CoV-2 airborne transmission in a room and thus take preventive measures such as maintaining good ventilation, wearing masks, or shortening the exposure time to an infected individual by simply using a CO2 monitor.

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