2013-2014 college football bowl games, point spreads, probability of winning
A little analysis of the bowl games.
Using the ESPN FPI I make the heroic assumptions that- FPI estimates the points above average expected to be scored vs an average team
- thus difference in FPI is a good proxy for expected point spread
So NetFPI is simply the difference between FPI for the two teams, rounded to 0.5
There has been a fair amount of work trying to understand the relationship between point spread and probability of winning the game outright. We could try some theory, but I'm not going to here. But I might consider thinking about estimating the point distribution and then just compute
Pr(points scored by team A > points scored by team B | point spread is N)
Instead, I've taken some data over a few thousand NCAA FBS games with point spread & game result (win or loss) and built a forecast of win% given point spread. Of course, the spread reflects the public's belief, set to where the bookie gets equal wagers on both sides. Thus some teams with avid fans might be systematically biased leading to poor prediction. But I'll assume that effect is just minor noise in the overall dataset.
So, Win% is the resulting forecast of the favorite's chance of winning outright.
We can look at the Vegas spread (as of 12/9/2013) and compare to the FPI predicted spread.
I've listed the spread & the difference. Note that there are a handful of games in which the Vegas favorite is different from the FPI predicted favorite.
Given the difference in FPI vs Vegas, I've taken a whack at forecasting the likelihood of winning the Vegas bet, and translated into Kelly betting, given the usual 110 money line on the spread bet.
Some other tidbits
The Pac12 has 9 bowl games. Pac12 teams are favored in 8 of the 9. Only Oregon State is an underdog, vs. Boise State in the Hawaii bowl.Given the expectation of winning, what are the probabilities of various scenarios?
It turns out that the likelihood of Pac12 teams bowling out to 9-0 is pretty small at about 9%,
and being shut out at 0-9 is extremely unlikely, at 4.3*10^-8.
the table of expected bowl wins for the Pac12 is
#Wins 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Probability% 0.01 0.36 1.91 7.68 21.51 33.02 26.36 9.15
Best bets
Utah State +2.5 vs Northern IllinoisStanford -3 vs Michigan State
are both about 80% probability bets. I'm surprised at the USU-NIU forecast, but the models think Utah State is quite strong especially in defense.
Arizona State -13 vs Texas Tech
Oregon -14 vs Texas
Duke +13 vs Texas A&M
and Florida State -6.5 vs Auburn
are all about 75%
the betting line is right on for Oklahoma State vs. Missouri. I will watch and enjoy that game, I think it could be great, but I won't be wagering on it.
Best games
Total FPI
VIZIO BCS game, Florida State vs Auburn, 58 FPISugar Bowl, Alabama vs Oklahoma, 40 FPI
Orange Bowl, Ohio State vs Clemson, 40 FPI
Rose Bowl, Stanford vs Michigan State, 38 FPI
The Cotton Bowl, Oklahoma State vs. Missouri, and the Alamo Bowl, Oregon vs Texes, both at 36 FPI look to be better than the weakest BCS game, Baylor vs UCF in the Fiesta Bowl at 33.
Washington vs BYU in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl also looks pretty strong at 34 FPI.
Notes on the table:
NFPI is the model predicted point differential for the game. The Vegas lines listed are opposite from the usual presentation - I did that for my own expedience in processing, sorry.The team highlighted in green is the favorite to win outright. The team in bold is favored to beat/cover the Vegas spread.
I am not updating the spread - I have the Dec 9 spreads in this table. The lines are updated regularly the sport books and you should not use this work for making your own real money bets without paying attention to the actual odds you are getting!
Needless to say, any use of this resulting in economic gain or loss is totally the responsibility of the reader... I don't expect any of you to send me a cut, but neither will I chip in if you lose. There are NO locks.
Bowl
|
Date
|
TEAMS
|
NFPI
|
Vegas
|
win%
|
% bet win
|
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
|
21-Dec-13 | LA-Lafayette, Sun Belt |
3.5
|
-1
|
59% | 60% |
| 21-Dec-13 | Tulane, C-USA | |||||
| GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL | 21-Dec-13 | Washington St, Pac-12 |
7
|
3
|
71% | 60% |
| 21-Dec-13 | Colorado State, MW | |||||
| FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL | 21-Dec-13 | Buffalo, MAC |
4.5
|
2
|
60% | 58% |
| 21-Dec-13 | San Diego State, MW | |||||
| ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL | 21-Dec-13 | USC, Pac-12 |
10.5
|
6
|
77% | 60% |
| 21-Dec-13 | Fresno State, MW | |||||
| BEEF 'O' BRADY'S BOWL | 23-Dec-13 | East Carolina, C-USA |
14.5
|
13
|
83% | 55% |
| 23-Dec-13 | Ohio, MAC | |||||
| SHERATON HAWAII BOWL | 24-Dec-13 | Boise State, MW |
1.5
|
4.5
|
55% | |
| 24-Dec-13 | Oregon State, Pac-12 | 58% | ||||
| LITTLE CAESARS BOWL | 26-Dec-13 | Bowling Green, MAC |
3
|
6
|
58% | |
| 26-Dec-13 | Pittsburgh, ACC | 58% | ||||
| POINSETTIA BOWL | 26-Dec-13 | Utah State, MW |
10
|
-2.5
|
76% | 81% |
| 26-Dec-13 | N Illinois, MAC | |||||
| FIGHT HUNGER BOWL | 27-Dec-13 | Washington, Pac-12 |
8
|
3
|
72% | 61% |
| 27-Dec-13 | BYU, FBS Indep. | |||||
| MILITARY BOWL | 27-Dec-13 | Marshall, C-USA |
4.5
|
3
|
60% | 55% |
| 27-Dec-13 | Maryland, ACC | |||||
| TEXAS BOWL | 27-Dec-13 | Minnesota, Big Ten |
3
|
4.5
|
58% | |
| 27-Dec-13 | Syracuse, ACC | 55% | ||||
| Belk Bowl | 28-Dec-13 | North Carolina, ACC |
6.5
|
2
|
71% | 60% |
| 28-Dec-13 | Cincinnati, American | |||||
| BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL | 28-Dec-13 | Kansas State, Big 12 |
1
|
3
|
54% | |
| 28-Dec-13 | Michigan, Big Ten | 56% | ||||
| NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL | 28-Dec-13 | Notre Dame, FBS Indep. |
16.5
|
17.5
|
84% | |
| 28-Dec-13 | Rutgers, American | 54% | ||||
| RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL | 28-Dec-13 | Miami (FL), ACC |
2
|
3
|
56% | |
| 28-Dec-13 | Louisville, American | 54% | ||||
| Valero Alamo Bowl | 30-Dec-13 | Oregon, Pac-12 |
22
|
14
|
90% | 72% |
| 30-Dec-13 | Texas, Big 12 | |||||
| ARMED FORCES BOWL | 30-Dec-13 | Navy, FBS Indep. |
9.5
|
7
|
74% | 58% |
| 30-Dec-13 | Middle Tennessee, C-USA | |||||
| HOLIDAY BOWL | 30-Dec-13 | Arizona State, Pac-12 |
21.5
|
13
|
90% | 74% |
| 30-Dec-13 | Texas Tech, Big 12 | |||||
| MUSIC CITY BOWL | 30-Dec-13 | Georgia Tech, ACC |
8
|
4
|
72% | 60% |
| 30-Dec-13 | Ole Miss, SEC | |||||
| AdvoCare V100 Bowl | 31-Dec-13 | Arizona, Pac-12 |
10.5
|
7
|
77% | 59% |
| 31-Dec-13 | Boston College, ACC | |||||
| Chick-fil-A BOWL | 31-Dec-13 | Texas A&M, SEC |
3.5
|
13
|
59% | |
| 31-Dec-13 | Duke, ACC | 74% | ||||
| AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL | 31-Dec-13 | Mississippi St, SEC |
8
|
7.5
|
72% | 52% |
| 31-Dec-13 | Rice, C-USA | |||||
| HYUNDAI SUN BOWL | 31-Dec-13 | UCLA, Pac-12 |
10
|
7
|
76% | 58% |
| 31-Dec-13 | Virginia Tech, ACC | |||||
| CAPITAL ONE BOWL | 1-Jan-14 | Wisconsin, Big Ten |
3.5
|
2
|
59% | 55% |
| 1-Jan-14 | South Carolina, SEC | |||||
| HEART OF DALLAS BOWL | 1-Jan-14 | North Texas, C-USA |
8.5
|
6.5
|
74% | 56% |
| 1-Jan-14 | UNLV, MW | |||||
| TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL | 1-Jan-14 | Baylor, Big 12 |
19.5
|
16.5
|
88% | 58% |
| 1-Jan-14 | UCF, American | |||||
| TAXSLAYER.com GATOR BOWL | 1-Jan-14 | Georgia, SEC |
11.5
|
9.5
|
79% | 56% |
| 1-Jan-14 | Nebraska, Big Ten | |||||
| OUTBACK BOWL | 1-Jan-14 | LSU, SEC |
9
|
7.5
|
74% | 55% |
| 1-Jan-14 | Iowa, Big Ten | |||||
| ROSE BOWL | 1-Jan-14 | Stanford, Pac-12 |
15
|
3.5
|
83% | 79% |
| 1-Jan-14 | Michigan State, Big Ten | |||||
| ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL | 2-Jan-14 | Alabama, SEC |
13.5
|
16
|
81% | |
| 2-Jan-14 | Oklahoma, Big 12 | 58% | ||||
| AT&T COTTON BOWL | 3-Jan-14 | Oklahoma State, Big 12 |
1.5
|
1.5
|
55% | |
| 3-Jan-14 | Missouri, SEC | |||||
| DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL | 3-Jan-14 | Ohio State, Big Ten |
5.5
|
4
|
63% | 55% |
| 3-Jan-14 | Clemson, ACC | |||||
| BBVA COMPASS BOWL | 4-Jan-14 | Houston, American |
3.5
|
-1.5
|
59% | 61% |
| 4-Jan-14 | Vanderbilt, SEC | |||||
| GODADDY BOWL | 5-Jan-14 | Ball State, MAC |
4
|
7.5
|
60% | |
| 5-Jan-14 | Arkansas State, Sun Belt | 59% | ||||
| VIZIO BCS | 6-Jan-14 | Florida State, ACC |
13.5
|
6.5
|
81% | 71% |
| 6-Jan-14 | Auburn, SEC |
posted by dave @ 9:59 PM
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